EVICTIONS! DIVORCE! ABSENTEE OWNERS! HIGH EQUITY! SIX YEAR
OWNERSHIP LENGTH! WHAT'S THE BEST LEAD SOURCE?
As an investor, I am sure you have heard all about the "magical" leads list that other
investors swear by.
At Top Notch Leads, we take a data approach to everything we do. While hunches are a great way to start, we are in constant search for factual data that can be referenced & tracked.
Today, I will write about our data findings for a lead source that is a favorite among
many investors, probate leads.
We took a look at all probate filings in Marion county for the first six months of 2021 in
order to find how many, if any, of those probates leads ended up selling their house.
The Truth, Through Data
How many Probate leads are out there?
In Marion county, Court 8 handles all probate matters.(e.g. Contested Estates, Trusts,
In the first half of 2021, there were 1417 cases filed in Court 8. The majority being
Unsupervised Estates and Guardianships:
- 784 Unsupervised Estates
- 321 Guardianship
- The rest below
How many of those cases resulted in sold properties?
From the 1417 cases filed in the first half, 268 (18%) have resulted in real estate
- 288 total properties sold(NOTE: some probate cases involved multiple property sales)
- 171 properties sold to investors ~ 12%
How fast after filing for probate were properties sold?
- Average time from filing for probate to the sale of the home is 121 days
- Half of them had already sold within 98 days
- See below for a detailed breakdown of the stats:
But are these properties good deals?
Ask 10 investors what a good deal looks like and they will give you 11 different
For simplicity, we will examine the percentage below or above the property's
assessed value to make a determination if the investor bought a great deal. In other
words, we are assuming that buying a property below its assessed value has better
chances of being a good deal than buying it above it.
For a baseline, in 2021 investors bought properties at an average of 36.7% ABOVE
their assessed value (37% for non investor deals). The best investors paid an average of 14% BELOW assessed value for properties during the same time period.
If we consider probate properties now, they were sold at an average of only 7% above their assessed value.
Therefore, probate properties do seem to be a better deal than the average investor deal out there.
I will be breaking down the numbers behind the most popular lead sources. Make sure to sign up for our newsletter to receive future emails & market updates.